Single logarithmic axis · All values in $/oz USD · Pre-production Tier-1 M&A transactions (2021–present)
Benchmark (should be)
22.1% of margin
Actual $/oz
Quarter-averaged
Transaction
Core Tier
Margin
Gold − AISC
Gold spot
Log scale
Core Median
$93/oz · D114 anchor
Grade tiers
M&A avg by grade
Grade premium zone
$102–$296/oz
Cipher baseline
253 deals · 1990–2013
HOW TO READ THIS CHART
The solid gold line shows the benchmark (22.1% of margin). The dark dashed line connects what acquirers actually paid, quarter by quarter. Multi-transaction quarters are plotted as the quarter average to keep the chart legible — hover any dot to see the individual transactions inside it. The widening space between benchmark and actual is THE GAP. The steel-blue dashed line is the Core Median ($93/oz) — the quoted-value anchor for every Gold Gap calculation. The dashed gold line tracks gold spot from ~$1,800 to $5,000. The green shading shows operating margin. Two dotted black lines show empirical grade tiers: high-grade assets (>5 g/t) averaged $296/oz; low-grade assets (<2 g/t) averaged $102/oz. Grade commands a ~3× premium — but both tiers experienced the same compression. The log scale compresses high values and expands the $40–$500 range where the gap lives.
Where Does Your Company Sit?
Enter public market data to calculate EV/oz. Sources: tmx.com, finance.yahoo.com, company filings.
★ Press Calculate — your company plots as a star on the chart above.
Using CAD/USD = 0.73. Result converted to USD for comparison with M&A benchmarks.
Your EV/oz (USD)
$0
Current Benchmark
$729/oz
22.1% × $3,300 margin
Core Median (D114)
$93/oz
Grade Tiers
<2 g/t: $102/oz
>5 g/t: $296/oz
All benchmarks in USD. Calculator converts CAD inputs.
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What do the grade tier lines ($102/oz and $296/oz) represent?
These are empirical values — actual averages from Core Tier-1 M&A transactions, sorted by deposit grade. Assets below 2 g/t were acquired at an average of $102/oz. Assets above 5 g/t were acquired at an average of $296/oz. These are not modeled or theoretical — they reflect what acquirers actually paid. If a company trades below $102/oz, the market is pricing it below what acquirers have historically paid even for the cheapest, lowest-grade assets in the database.
Doesn’t the Gold Gap Index ignore grade?
No. The grade tier lines on the chart address this directly. Grade commands roughly a 3× premium ($296 vs. $102/oz) — but both tiers experienced the same margin compression over time. High-grade acquisition prices did not keep pace with rising margins any more than low-grade prices did. The Gold Gap is not a grade phenomenon; it is a market-wide phenomenon.
What about project stage? A Feasibility asset should trade higher than Exploration.
Stage matters — but compression operates across stages. Augusta Gold (Feasibility, 2025) was acquired at $69/oz. Coeur Mining (Exploration, 2022) was acquired at $167/oz. Marathon Gold (Development, 2023) was acquired at $93/oz. Across stages, the gap holds.
Why a small sample?
The database includes only transactions that meet a strict scope: 0.3–7.0 Moz, pre-production, Tier-1 jurisdictions, arms-length, 2021–present. Transactions outside scope — producing mines, polymetallic assets, non-Tier-1 jurisdictions, contingent-pricing structures — are excluded with documented reasons. We do not pad the sample to inflate it. The database grows as new qualifying deals close and is updated continuously.
Is EV/oz the same as what acquirers paid per ounce?
M&A transaction prices reflect equity consideration (what the acquirer paid for shares). EV/oz adjusts for cash and debt on the balance sheet. For pre-production juniors with minimal debt, the difference is typically small. EV/oz is the industry-standard metric used by institutional analysts and is what the calculator above produces. The M&A database uses equity-based pricing, which closely approximates EV for the companies in our universe.
Why are some quarters plotted as a single dot when there are two transactions?
For visual clarity. Multi-transaction quarters are plotted as the quarter average so the chart stays legible. The dot is a visual convention only — the underlying Core Median ($93/oz) and grade tier averages are calculated from individual transactions, not from quarter-averaged dots. Hover any dot to see the individual transactions inside it.
The Gold Gap Index tracks the aggregate compression in M&A premiums relative to operating margins. Benchmark uses gross operating margin (gold price minus AISC). AISC includes mine-site royalties and taxes per WGC standard. Net cash flow varies by project structure — IBA / First Nations participation, sustaining capex, and corporate taxes are project-specific. The Gold Gap Index is a macro market indicator — individual transactions reflect project-specific factors including grade, stage, and infrastructure. The systemic pattern across these variables is the signal. Gold spot prices (XAU/USD) from Investing.com. AISC: $1,300/oz (2021–2023), $1,600/oz (2024–2025), $1,700/oz (2026+) per WGC/GA benchmarks. Core Tier: 0.3–7.0 Moz, pre-production (Exploration through Feasibility), Tier-1 jurisdictions, arms-length. Multi-transaction quarters are plotted as the quarter average for visual clarity; Core Median and grade tier averages compute from individual transactions. Grade tiers: >5 g/t avg $296/oz, <2 g/t avg $102/oz from Core transactions. Cipher baseline from Cipher Research (253 transactions, 1990–2013). Single logarithmic scale. Disclosure: The author holds shares in companies appearing in this chart, including WRR, GPG, and GWM. Share ownership only — no advisory, consulting, or compensated relationship with any company shown. Full disclosures at gilbertanalytics.substack.com/about. Not investment advice.