Single logarithmic axis · All values in $/oz USD · Grade tiers from 14 Core M&A transactions (2021–present)
Benchmark (should be)
22.1% of margin
Actual $/oz
Carried forward
Transaction
Core Tier
Margin
Gold − AISC
Gold spot
Log scale
Grade tiers
M&A avg by grade
Cipher baseline
253 deals · 1990–2013
Grade premium zone
$96–$296/oz
HOW TO READ THIS CHART
The solid gold line shows the benchmark (22.1% of margin). The dark dashed line shows what acquirers actually paid. The widening space between the two is THE GAP. The dashed gold line tracks the gold spot price sweeping from ~$1,800 to $5,000. The green shading shows operating margin. Two dotted black lines show empirical grade tiers from the M&A database: high-grade assets (>5 g/t) averaged $296/oz, low-grade assets (<2 g/t) averaged $96/oz. The shaded band between them is the grade premium zone — grade commands a 3× premium, but both tiers experienced the same margin compression. The log scale compresses high values and expands the $40–$500 range where the gap lives.
Where Does Your Company Sit?
Enter public market data to calculate EV/oz. Sources: tmx.com, finance.yahoo.com, company filings.
Using CAD/USD = 0.73. Result converted to USD for comparison with M&A benchmarks.
Your EV/oz (USD)
$0
Current Benchmark
$729/oz
22.1% × $3,300 margin
Actual M&A Average
$107/oz
Grade Tiers
<2 g/t: $96/oz
>5 g/t: $296/oz
All benchmarks in USD. Calculator converts CAD inputs.
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What do the grade tier lines ($96/oz and $296/oz) represent?
These are empirical values — actual averages from our 14 Core M&A transactions. We sorted every transaction by deposit grade. Assets below 2 g/t (10 transactions) were acquired at an average of $96/oz. Assets above 5 g/t (4 transactions) were acquired at an average of $296/oz. These are not modeled or theoretical — they reflect what acquirers actually paid. The lines give you a real-world frame of reference: if a company trades below $96/oz, the market is pricing it below what acquirers have historically paid even for the cheapest, lowest-grade assets.
Doesn’t the Gold Gap Index ignore grade?
No. The grade tier lines on the chart address this directly. Grade commands a 3× premium ($296 vs. $96/oz) — but both tiers experienced the same margin compression over time. High-grade acquisition prices did not keep pace with rising margins any more than low-grade prices did. The Gold Gap is not a grade phenomenon; it is a market-wide phenomenon.
What about project stage? A Feasibility asset should trade higher than Exploration.
Our database shows Exploration assets averaged ~$44/oz while PEA and Feasibility assets averaged ~$93/oz. Stage matters — but the compression is identical across stages. Augusta Gold (Feasibility, 2025) was acquired at $69/oz. Crown Sterling (Exploration, 2022) was acquired at $167/oz. The gap affects all stages equally.
14 transactions seems like a small sample.
These are all qualifying transactions that meet our criteria: 0.3–7.0 Moz, pre-production, Tier-1 jurisdictions, arms-length, 2021–present. We reviewed 53 transactions and excluded 33 with documented reasons (producing mines, polymetallic assets, Tier-2 jurisdictions, etc.). We do not fabricate transactions to increase sample size. The database grows as new qualifying deals occur and is updated quarterly.
Is EV/oz the same as what acquirers paid per ounce?
M&A transaction prices reflect equity consideration (what the acquirer paid for shares). EV/oz adjusts for cash and debt on the balance sheet. For pre-production juniors with minimal debt, the difference is typically less than $10/oz based on our analysis of the 14 transactions in the database. EV/oz is the industry standard metric used by institutional analysts. Our M&A database uses equity-based pricing, which closely approximates EV for the companies in our universe.
The Gold Gap Index tracks the aggregate compression in M&A premiums relative to operating margins. It is a macro market indicator — individual transactions reflect project-specific factors including grade, stage, and infrastructure. The systemic pattern across these variables is the signal. Gold spot prices (XAU/USD) from Investing.com. AISC: $1,300/oz (2021–2023), $1,600/oz (2024–2025), $1,700/oz (2026+) per WGC/GA benchmarks. Core Tier: 0.3–7.0 Moz, pre-production (Exploration through Feasibility), Tier-1 jurisdictions, arms-length. 53 transactions reviewed, 14 Core, 33 excluded (see Methodology Validation Report). Grade tiers: >5 g/t avg $296/oz, <2 g/t avg $96/oz from Core transactions. Cipher baseline from Cipher Research (253 transactions, 1990–2013). Single logarithmic scale. Not investment advice.